An economy waiting to be relaunched

An economy waiting to be relaunched

Andreas Raspotnik and Ryan Uljua
While in the past Alaska greatly benefited from oil and gas related revenues, today the American state is facing a time of crisis that might only be overcome through the prospect of the new 'black oil rush' pushed by Trump

Alaska. The United States’ last frontier, purchased from the Russian Empire in 1867, home to the alpine forget-me-not and origin of the Yukon Quest, the toughest dog sled race in the world. Moreover, the most sparsely state of the 50 United States also has a century-long history of petroleum exploration and development. An endeavour that over the past few decades supplied the United States with much needed energy, boosted the region’s economy, but also led to one of the biggest environmental catastrophes in US history. While the broader Arctic region has often been framed as the world’s last energy frontier, the State of Alaska has also experienced heated debates over its energy future. As the region’s proven oil resources become depleted, politicians, producers, environmentalists, and local communities debate the what, where, how,and when of Alaska’s hydrocarbon future.

The great American North and its oil resources

Although Alaska’s petroleum history dates back to 1902 and an already first commercial oil discovery near Cordova, its later success story began only shortly after granted statehood in 1959. The discovery of the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field on Alaska’s North Slope in 1968 was the turning point for the United States’ last frontier to eventually become an oil state. Nine years later, one of the world’s largest pipeline systems conveyed its first oil from northern Alaska to a marine terminal at the northernmost ice-free port in North America at Valdez. The Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) was born. A system that transported over 17 billion barrels of oil in its 40-year history. A system that fundamentally changed the State of Alaska with tremendous economic, social and physical impact. A system that flushed millions of dollars in royalty and tax money into Alaska. A system that yet also conveyed oil for the Exxon Valdez, an oil tanker that struck a reef in the Prince William Sound in 1989, leading to the then largest marine oil spill in US history and pouring almost 11 billion gallons of North Slope crude into the Gulf of Alaska.

A flourishing energy past, an uncertain energy future

Today, the oil and natural gas industry still remains a key part of Alaska’s economy, with the North Slope containing half a dozen of the 100 largest oil fields in the United States. Despite steadily declining oil production, Alaska still provides for about 6-7% of the US’ internal oil demand (= the fourth largest producer of crude oil among the 50 states in 2015) and - until 2014 - also re-experienced an economic boom due to oil prices up to $100/barrel. However, the region’s oil and gas future is anything from certain. There is an estimated 50 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable resources (= 26 billion barrels of oil and 132 trillion cubic feet of gas) in Alaska’s outer continental shelf region, with the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort and Chukchi Seas alone holding an estimated 23 billion barrels of oil and 100 trillion cubic feet of gas. Yet, despite these expectation and especially given to the (current) low price of oil, the outlook for production from the North Slope does not look too rosy. In 2015, only 0.1% of US federal offshore crude production came from the Arctic. It is currently expected that the combined oil and natural gas liquids production will experience a 4,2% decline over the next 10 years, from about 509,000 barrels/day in 2017 to 339,000 barrels/day in 2026. A slowdown that would also cast doubt on TAPS’ viability.

Alaska in the Obama years

Additionally, environmental concerns severely impact discussions on the future of Alaska’s petroleum state. Aiming to leave a pro-environment legacy, US President Barack Obama banned oil and gas drilling in federal waters in the Arctic Ocean at the end of his second term in December 2016. The ban essentially affects 115 million acres of federal waters off Alaska in the Chukchi Sea and most of the Beaufort Sea. The decision is, however, currently to be revised by the Trump Administration, as part of the America First Energy Plan. In 2013, President Obama further rejected an effort to start exploration drilling on a 1.5 million acres coastal plain in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), with an estimated mean value of 7.7 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil. Yet, the current government is more open to lift the related restrictions and allow for seismic testing in ANWR’s so-called "1002 area". The proposal has been heavily criticised by environmental, but also sportsmen and tourism groups due to the potential negative impact on the region’s habitat and its wildlife population. However, President Obama was not entirely against new oil development in Alaska, especially if considering the efforts of Royal Dutch Shell, whose US Arctic endeavours spanned his presidency. Only after years of stop-and-start, Shell eventually abandoned drilling efforts in 2015, officially due to marginal discoveries. Yet, lasting public opposition surprised the Dutch company and essentially contributed to the decision. Overall, Shell spent $7 billion on its Alaska project.

A new era with Trump

In the face of the years-long slump in oil prices combined with declining North Slope production and Shell’s false starts, Alaska’s economy is struggling. Not only is the state two years into a recession. Wages also fell in 2016 for the first time since the 1990s and the Permanent Fund dividend has been cut in half as a direct result of low oil prices. Following the election results of 2016, many in Alaska saw the incoming Trump Administration as a potential boon to the Alaskan oil industry, and with it the rest of the Alaskan economy. Since taking office, the new administration has indeed taken steps to boost the Alaskan oil industry, including laying the groundwork for ANWR seismic testing, offering Beaufort Sea exploration licenses, and signalling it may open up even more federal land to exploration. Pro-oil, pro-growth policies on the federal level may indeed help out the Alaskan economy, but the political relationship between the Trump Administration and the State of Alaska is anything but a certainty. In July, one of Alaska’s two Republican Senators broke party lines and voted against an appeal of Obama-era healthcare laws-an appeal that was supported by the Trump Administration. In response to the vote, President Trump issued a public threat, critiquing Senator Lisa Murkowski and sending word through Department of Interior officials that the vote hurt Alaska’s standing within the Administration. Despite the kerfuffle, it is worth noting that only Congress can legally give the final approval for oil development in ANWR-not the President.

New opportunities to develop exports?

Despite low oil prices, logistic challenges, and an unfavourable climate, oil exploration in the US Arctic is not without its attractions. For example, major Italian oil firm Eni plans on exploratory drilling in Alaska’s federal waters in the Beaufort Sea after receiving approval in July 2017. Logistically-speaking, TAPS is currently only operating at 25% capacity due to declining North Slope production and pipeline managers would be thrilled to transport crude from new offshore and ANWR fields-and can be expected to offer favourable terms. Finally, as the US continues to grow as an oil exporter, especially to East Asia, Alaska is posed to potentially benefit. In terms of infrastructure, Alaska’s Valdez terminal has always been a seaborne export terminal--albeit those "exports" have historically been to the Lower 48 rather than Asia. In the Gulf of Mexico, however, infrastructure is geared toward seaborne imports, rather than exports, and dedicated export facilities are not slated to come online for several years. Geographically, the voyage of a crude oil tanker is far shorter from Alaska to South Korea than from Houston to South Korea. The economics of exporting oil en masse from East Asia are not quite there yet, but given the narrow margins involved, things may change in the coming years, with the Asian refiners offering producers a dynamic market for Alaskan oil. Despite recent energy policy developments involving the US Arctic, politicians do not set the global price of oil. As long as the price of oil remains in a prolonged slump, Alaska will struggle regardless of how much it pumps. Some experts say that even in the best-case scenario of increased Alaskan exploration and production over the next decade it can only slow or halt the state’s economic decline, but eventually cannot reverse it. Hence, oil and gas will shape Alaska’s future-in one way or another.