OPEC's renewed optimism

OPEC's renewed optimism

Editorial Staff
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Presenting the World Oil Outlook 2040 in Vienna, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries takes stock of the industry's growth prospects. Growing demand and the positive outcomes of production cuts introduced in recent months appear to have restored greater serenity after the bad omens of a few years ago

Over a year ago, OPEC received historic global recognition for the tenacity and foresight with which it brought all the historic members of the Organization and 11 non-OPEC producers together around a table to carry out an unprecedented readjustment of the oil markets, deciding to introduce a general cut in production. At the presentation of the World Oil Outlook 2040 in Vienna, there was a climate of general, if cautious, satisfaction. “We are confident that together we are writing a new chapter in the global history of oil” - stressed the secretary general Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo - referring to the latest decisions made by the Organization. In the introduction to the report, Barkindo explains how, alongside an acceleration in the global economy, which is expected in the medium term to improve from a positive 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2022, thanks to growth in countries like India and China and to the new climate of stability in Eurasia, we are seeing progress in the demand for oil, which is forecast to grow by 6.9 mb/d between 2016 and 2022, from a global level of 95.4 mb/d to 102.3 mb/d. This equates to an average annual growth of almost 1.2 mb/d. The long-term forecast to 2040 has a further surprise in store. Compared to the last edition of the WOO, demand is expected to have reached 111.1 mb/d by then, although average growth will fall to around 300,000 b/b between 2035 and 2040 as a result of a more profound energy efficiency development process, as well as a slow-down in GDP and world population growth. This edition of the WOO also focuses on the amount of investment that will be required, both upstream and downstream, to achieve the necessary levels of production and distribution. According to OPEC, these will amount to around 10.5 trillion dollars between now and 2040, despite recent falls in oil prices having already resulted in around a trillion dollars worth of new projects being frozen.